It’s hard to predict what’s going to happen next with publishing. (Remember when the Apple newsstand was going to revolutionize publishing?) I’m going to give it a shot anyway and make a few predictions.

First, I’m going to start with some trends that we’re seeing now, and will, I think, continue to see …

1. More and more usage on the smart phone. I ride a commuter train every day, and I’ve watched people’s reading habits change over the years. You rarely see a newspaper any more. Despite the fact that most people are reading, paper books aren’t as common as they used to be.

While the dedicated eReader seems like the perfect device for somebody who’s stuck on a train for an hour a day, the increased size of smart phones is eating into that market. Even though the eReader offers a better reading experience, it’s not better enough for many people to justify carrying around an extra device. They’ll just read on their phones. (Don’t underestimate “good enough.”)

Increased screen size, memory and processing power is getting to the point where it’s almost possible to do some work on a smart phone. That trend will continue — until someone comes up with a truly transformational input device. (Such as the one I discuss in The Intruder.

2. More social. I admit that I sneak a peak at what people are doing on their smart phones from time to time. Yes, it’s rude, and no, I’m not a stalker. I’m not reading what they’re typing. I have a professional interest in what kinds of things people do on their smart phones.

A lot of people are playing games, but that seems to be decreasing. More and more are engaged in some sort of social activity — tweeting, texting a friend or checking their Facebook feed.

As connectivity gets better, people are going to be doing more and more social activities on their phones.

3. More customization / personalization. Smart data is the thing. Facebook feeds you the stuff it thinks you’ll want. Google (it’s rumored) gives you search results you’re more likely to click on. News sites can track your interests and give you more of what you’ve read in the past.

Companies are starting to learn that data about their readers is one of their most valuable assets, and they’re looking for new ways to monetize that. On the other side of the device, users like a more customized experience. Those two interests will continue to drive ever more customization.

4. More “gamification.” By which I don’t really mean games, but systems that use points and rewards. A good example I’ve seen recently is sites that only allow you to read a full article after you take a survey.

The generalized notion is that if you behave the way somebody else wants you to behave — do a certain task, buy at a certain time, answer a question, etc. — they’ll reward you. It’s a way of paying without paying, and it’s going to become more common.

That’s all the easy stuff because it’s what’s happening now. Some people would simply take those trend lines and draw them into the future, but that’s a sure way to err. If you don’t believe me, just look at predictions based on trend lines for eBooks and eReaders. Lines don’t just go on into the future with their current slope.

Rather, I think something semi-transformational is going to take these current trends and merge them into something new. Of course I don’t know for sure what that’s going to be, but here’s my prediction.

A shift to multiple personnas.

I have one identity — I’m just one person — but that one identity isn’t all that relevant to advertisers. The guy who wants to sell me fishing equipment doesn’t care that I also homebrew, or that I like to read about anthropology. So the content provider and the advertiser want to be able to home in on interests, not (in one sense) on people.

On the other end of the device, the user wants to keep things separate as well. My political and social views have no relevance to homebrewing, and if a particular lure is working for perch in the Severn River, I really don’t care if the guy who’s giving me fishing advice agrees with me about the Confederate flag.

The user wants to have different online identities. One for work life. One for games. One for politics. One for hobbies.

So, my prediction for publishing is a shift from gathering people to gathering personnas. Any given person will have multiple online identities. The system that perfects that — that allows people to conduct their digital lives under the umbrella of different personnas — is going to take Facebook’s lunch. Unless Facebook does it first, of course.

The primary impact on publishing is that niches will be much easier to reach and much easier to identify.

The secondary impact will be further fragmentation — by device and by monetizing strategy. There’s no reason to think that bond investors will behave the same way as Taylor Swift junkies, either in the device or technology they use or in the best way to get them to pay for services.

The short-term impact on publishing — and on content creation in general — is going to be a need to dive ever deeper into niches.

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